Every season around this time, there are a few players and teams
that pop out and surprise just about every fantasy football
player out there. Some of these surprises, like finding a
twenty-dollar bill in the dryer, are very pleasing. Other
surprises, like finding out you left a Hershey bar in the pocket
of your favorite shirt in the dryer, just leave you with that
sinking feeling that your season is in trouble. Let's take a
look at who are the twenty-dollar bills and who are the
chocolate bars after week two of the NFL season.
The Twenties:
Right now, I think everyone would agree that Willie Parker has
been one of the most pleasant surprises in the fantasy world.
Despite his smallish size, Parker and his blazing speed have put
up very good, if not fantastic, fantasy numbers up behind the
Steelers powerful offensive line. He is second in the NFL in
rushing with 272 yards with two TDs and first in yards per carry
average, gaining an average of 5.8 yards every time he takes a
handoff. He has only caught one pass out of the backfield but he
wound up turning that into a 48-yard gain. Considering that
"Fast" Willie was not even listed in our last Average Draft
Position rankings that listed over 270 fantasy draft eligible
players, he is the clear cut best value pick of the 2005 draft.
Now, there are some caveats when it comes to Willie before we
get too excited. For one, the Steelers faced the Titans and the
Texans in their first two games. When the 2005 season ends, we
doubt that either one of these teams will be ranked in the
top-ten in total defense. In fact, when the 2004 season ended
the Titans ranked 27th and Texans finished ranked 23rd,
respectively. While it is great for fantasy owners that Parker
has gotten off to a fast start, your going to have to take a
wait and see approach as the Steelers will be facing the
Patriots, Chargers and Jaguars in the coming weeks.
Another thing to note about Parker is that he may have some
competition lurking right around the corner. The playing time he
is receiving now is coming compliments of Duce Staley and Jerome
Bettis being on the injured list. It will be interesting to see
how the carries will be divided once these two veterans return
to the lineup. We don't see Parker being buried on the bench, he
has show way to much talent for that to happen, but his
opportunities in the offense may decrease once the veterans
return. The good thing, for Parker, is that both Bettis and
Staley are getting a little older and may be breaking down a bit
more often as the season goes on. So "Fast" Willie still has a
chance to finish the season as the Steelers No. 1 back.
Another young running back has been a pleasant surprise for
fantasy owners and the 2-0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Yes, we're
talking about rookie sensation Carnell "Cadillac" Williams. We
really liked Williams coming into this season and had him ranked
as our #2 rookie running back, behind Ronnie Brown in Miami with
the thinking that Williams might have to share more carries with
Michael Pittman. So far, Williams has not disappointed us one
bit since he is leading the league in rushing with 276 yards on
the ground and two TDs. He already has seven runs of 15 yards or
more in only TWO GAMES! If you're in a league that rewards for
longer TD's that's a stat that will make you sit up and take
notice.
The only mildy disappointing stat to see with Williams is that
he is yet to catch a pass out of the backfield. We thought he
would do more of that in John Gruden's offense, but we're not
complaining. How can you complain since Williams ADP coming for
this season was 38. Many other backs who are not producing in
this early season, like Jamal Lewis, Kevin Jones and Tatum Bell
were being selected ahead of Williams.
If you want more positivity about Williams, just look at his
opponents that he has done his damage against. In his first NFL
game, he faced a revamped Vikings defense that was supposed to
be built to stop the run. Well, that didn't happen as he went
off for 148 yards and a TD. In that game he was able to rip off
a spectacular 71-yard TD romp. OK, you say, he did it against a
rebuilt Vikings D, big deal. Let's see him do it against the
Bills, one of the best run stopping defenses in the NFL.
Cadillac took that challenge and zoomed off to a 128-yard, 1 TD
performance. Considering that the Bills held 2005 preseason
fantasy darling (in some people's eyes) Domanick Davis to 48
yards in their season opener, it's even more impressive. The
next few weeks look even brighter for Williams as the Bucs will
be facing Packer, Lions and Jets, three teams that have had
their problems so far in this early season. If you have him,
keep him in your lineup and if you don't you may want to make a
trade to get him.
Who would have thought when you looked at the QB rankings going
into week 3 of the NFL season that Trent Dilfer would be ahead
of Peyton Manning, Marc Bulger, Kerry Collins and Daunte
Culpepper in both passing yardage and rating? If you said yes, I
also want the winning numbers to this week's lotto drawing.
Dilfer's arrival into Cleveland as the starting quarterback went
under the radar of most NFL prognosticators, as it should have.
Dilfer, even though having a Super Bowl ring on his resume, has
never been a QB to put up great fantasy numbers. He's a guy who
will control the game for you and hopefully not make too many
mistakes. Well, he's not making many mistakes, but he's also
making big plays for the Browns. After week 2 of the NFL season,
Dilfer ranks second in the NFL in passing yards with 614, 5th in
passer rating at 95.1 and third in passing touchdowns with 4!
Not to bad for a guy the Browns got off the scrap heap from
Seattle.
Now do we think that Dilfer will maintain his current pace and
finish in the top 5 in all of these categories, probably not. We
do think that Dilfer is probably capable of making some quality
starts for your fantasy team at some point down the road this
season. The Browns defense isn't all that impressive and they
will probably have to put the ball in the air quite a bit this
year to play catch up. Remember in the fantasy world, it's not
about the NFL teams winning or losing, it's the stats they put
up doing either. The Browns also have some talented players on
offense with Antonio Bryant, Dennis Northcutt and rookie Braylon
Edwards. There is some potential there for big plays, like
Braylon Edwards' 80 yard catch and run against the Packers in
week two.
Another thing working in Dilfer's favor is the Browns schedule.
The Browns play the Colts, Lions, Texans, Titans, Dolphins,
Vikings, Bengals and Raiders this season. The Browns should be
either in a shootout or be playing catch-up in a lot of these
games. Dilfer could be a quality start for many of these weeks
depending on your other QB's matchups. The Browns offensive line
is doing a nice job of protecting the 11-year veteran so far, so
he could wind up lasting the entire season. Either way you cut
it, Dilfer is a quality pickup and not a huge gamble at this
point in the season.
The Hersheys:
The player that has obviously disappointed many fantasy fans
the most this season has to be Vikings quarterback Daunte
Culpepper. Culpepper came into this season as a fantasy stud and
a quarterback that some people had ranked ahead of Peyton
Manning as the top fantasy QB. We held off on making him the top
QB, but still had him ranked 2nd overall, ignoring the fact that
the Vikings lost all-world wide receiver Randy Moss and thinking
that Nate Burleson was good enough to pick up the slack. Well,
it appears that Moss' affect on the offense and Culpepper's play
was greatly underestimated as Culpepper's numbers look more like
a player with and ADP of 80, not 8, as his was coming into this
season.
Culpepper's rankings are just completely flip-flopped from what
they usually are. He ranks FIRST in interceptions, with 8 and is
one of only two quarterbacks in the league to not have thrown a
touchdown pass this season. Trent Green is the other QB without
a TD toss, but Kansas City's running game has them at 2-0 in
this young season. Culpepper is also dead last in QB rating with
an appalling 41.6 rating. We're used to 41.6 being the average
yardage on a Culpepper TD toss, not his QB rating!
What is most alarming about Culpepper's play is the fact that he
looks completely lost out on the field. Of course, there are
variables affecting his play, like the lack of a running game, a
banged up offensive line that will be without center Matt Birk
for the entire season and the offense has a new offensive
coordinator in Steve Loney. These could be excuses if he only
threw 2 TDs and 4 picks, but 0 and 8! That is cause for alarm.
Another big fantasy disappointment early in the 2005 season has
been the play of Denver running backs Mike Anderson and Tatum
Bell. Through two games, the two backs have run for a total of
only 101 yards and 0 TDs. Not typical production for the Denver
ground game. Through the first two games of last season, Quentin
Griffith had 222 yards and a TD.
What may be most concerning is the fact that neither back has
established himself as the feature back in the offense be it
because of injury or bad play. If both running backs continue to
play poorly, the fantasy value that found in the Denver
backfield could be lost. It could also open the door for former
Giant, Ron Dayne, who has had limited opportunities thus far in
the regular season, but look impressive in the preseason. If we
had to go with one back right now it would be Mike Anderson.
Once his ribs heal up and the Broncos face some weaker
opponents, Anderson's production should go up. Tatum Bell missed
out on a golden opportunity to lock down the starting job when
Anderson was out, so look for head coach Mike Shanahan to go
back to his veteran back when he's completely healthy.
Our last disappointing surprise of this early season also comes
from the Minnesota Vikings in the form of wide receiver, Nate
Burleson. Burleson was the heir apparent to Randy Moss in the
Vikings offense. So far, it looks like Moss' shoes were too big
to fill for the sure-handed Burleson. It was thought that once
Moss was out of Minnesota, Burleson would blossom and turn into
an upper-echelon fantasy receiver. That hasn't been the case so
far this season.
If you look at the Vikings team stats, you'll see that Burleson
isn't even the team's leading receiver. The honor goes to
free-agent acquisition Travis Taylor. Taylor has been a mild
surprise with 10 catches for 113 yards so far this season. Not
spectacular numbers, but when you put them next to Burleson's,
who has 6 catches for 93 yards, you have to wonder why Burleson
achieved an ADP of 42 compared to Taylor's 147.
You can almost put part of the blame of Culpepper's bad start on
the shoulders of Burleson because defenses do not respect his
speed as they did Moss', therefore giving Culpepper less room
for error. We see the development of rookie WR Troy Williamson
as being essential for Burleson and the Vikings offense to
blossom this season. He is the only receiver on the roster that
has the speed that defenses will respect. The question is, will
he develop fast enough to save your fantasy season??
Phew! There ya have it. A look at some players who have
surprised for good and bad reasons so far in this young NFL
season. Depending on who you own out of this group, you could be
cheering or jeering. They could be players that put you over the
top or put you over the edge this season.
About the author:
Jason Clarke is the webmaster and lead editor of
Huddlegeeks.com, a respected fantasy football analysis website.
Jason is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers of America.
NFL Tickets -
Super Bowl Tickets -
Patroits Tickets
